Job Longevity in IT
Every trade professional in the information era comes to the question of longevity. Will their opportunities remain, or will they come to make way for their replacement? Unfortunately for those investigating their future, many who promote entrance into certain occupations benefit from their over-filling. Let’s look at two competing velocities, the growth rate in development jobs and the rate of growth for developers, compared to the national averages and explorations into alternatives.
Starting Points
Wages & Labor Statistics
It’s helpful to start with the common facts: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 25% increase in developer jobs between 2022 and 2032. In an equivalent 10-year span between 2020 and 2030, Vespa et al. show an estimated 6.8% increase in population. Although these points of data seem to show development jobs growing exceptionally well, what needs to be explored are doubts about the accuracy of these numbers and, more importantly, expected growth in developers. If the number of developers is increased by 40%, for example, in ten years, the interpretation of this information would become rather grim. The Bureau’s estimated percent increase is from an increase in employment of 451,200, which we will record for assessment later.
To explain the context around development for anyone reading this essay before they have any education in development, possibly using this to decide whether to invest in their education, let us discuss the current conditions of the developer. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The median annual wage for software developers was $132,270 in May 2023.” Given that according to their May 2023 estimates for all occupations, the average wage was $65,470, slightly over twice (ignoring tax brackets). Interestingly, though, web developers comparatively only averaged $95,570 in 2023. Combined, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also states that the standard entry education is only a bachelor’s degree; development appears to be a very appealing job.
What is a developer?
A developer is someone who creates or develops computer code. This computer code is often called programs, software, or applications, depending on whatever it is specifically. You’re using a computer program to read this right now, and somewhere in the past, a developer, or more likely a team thereof, made it for your use. In addition, developers are distinguished from simple “programmers” by additional responsibilities in “development.” If you were to consider a physical structure, the engineer of the structure would draw up its plans and invent solutions for any design problems, with its physical creation being handled more so by non-engineer labor.
A developer is similarly conceptual in scope, building out what a program should do and “delegate most or all of the computer instruction writing (coding) to one or more computer programmers,” according to Coursera. Of course, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, programmers in 2023 made an average of $107,750, which isn’t bad either.
After reading this, you will want to get a bachelor’s degree if you want to become a developer. An example requirements list from Tri-Tec Manufacturing LLC (paying between $100,000 and $135,000) specifically asks for a “Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or Electrical Engineering.” They also typically ask for fluency in whatever coding language they use specifically; if you don’t pick any up during your degree, the most common coding languages you may want to learn are Javascript, HTML/CSS, Python, and C. You use your technical knowledge in software to solve problems encountered by coders.
Historical Wages
Graphs / Table
The following table used historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor.
Table of Wages, Wage Growth, and Wage Growth Rate of all Occupations and Developers.
To make it more understandable, here are some graphs.
Graph comparing the (average) wages of all occupations to developer occupations.
Graph comparing the wage velocities [[[current year $ — old year $]/old year $]*100%] of all occupations to developer occupations
Graph comparing the Wage Acceleration [[Current Year Velocity — Old Year Velocity]/ Old Year Velocity] of all occupations to developer occupations.
Interpretation
Although it might seem that a very significant global event happening in the middle of this data collection affects it, given that downturns are regular every 10 years (although the tables are technically over 11 years), understanding how occupations react to typical cycles is important to their interpretation. However, the nature of the downturn specifically benefited digitized occupations should be noted. But, with minimal exception, the velocity of employment for developers was higher than the average for all occupations even before the downturn, giving strength to the conclusion that developer employment is rising per capita.
Interestingly, wage velocity and employment velocity were not oppositional in the time frame. They can’t be said to be directly equal, though; while wages only had an average velocity of 3.41% year after year, the amount of employment was 4.13% on average year after year. Comparatively all occupations had an average employment velocity of only 0.40% and an average wage velocity of 3.32%. The pre-emptive conclusion from just this evidence would suggest that developers would grow in number while maintaining around 2x the average wage until employment velocity falls to match the general trends, possibly undergoing a “proletarianization” effect.
Side Factors
Mass Education
The average annual wage in 2023 was $65,470, according to Indeed. Bachelor-educated employees made an annual $66,286, and those with just a high school education made $37,024. Remember, though, all these are averages. The actual average person is making far less as a few high incomes raise the “assigned” average. Still, not even accounting for education, developers have less than exceptional wages.
According to the US Census Bureau between 2011 and 2021 the percentage of people who held bachelors degrees rose from 9.5% to 10.1%. Moving some equations around that can be evaluated to a 0.61% relative velocity per year (where the percent is getting increased multiplicatively by 1.0061 x every year). Larger than total average employment velocity, worse than developer employment velocity.
An Aside on Programmers
Despite the seeming stability of developers, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts an 11% decline in their employment between 2022 and 2032. It could be that there’s another new role that all the programmers are being assigned to while maintaining employment, possibly the developer role. Given that the Bureau only estimated 147,400 programmers against 1,795,300 developers, this is quite likely. It would not be unfair to expect automation tools to replace the “laborer” coders. Still, the wages afforded to higher education employment can’t be expected to stick around as many people are employed in it.
Conclusion
Tentative stability. Everything seems to point to developer jobs staying at the same relative income into the foreseeable future, not rising or falling far from 2 times the average wage. There are minor points of concern, such as the employment of developers rising faster than their wages. Still, evidence predicting a surplus of people seeking jobs in development has not displayed itself in research. However, developer jobs are safe overall for at least the next ten years. Unfortunately, with the rise of generative AI, any prediction beyond ten years would be “going beyond my facts.”
If you consider becoming a developer for the quality of the wages as they are now, this paper supports your position. It does not predict a wage rise if you hope to get in on some future “golden age” of software development. Despite that, developers started ahead, so staying ahead by the same amount is great. The future of developers won’t fall out from beneath them.